Episode 274

May 14
2 min read

5/14/26

Topic: Brace for Impact: Economic Signals Pest & Lawn Owners Should Watch

Guest: Bill Conerly, Ph.D., Economist & Author

Click here to listen.

Click here to watch.

In this episode we discuss:

Our sponsors Coalmarch by Workwave, PestSure, Voice for Pest & Forshaw
PMP Industry Insiders Peer Groups
Bill's background and work as a consulting economist, including his 2018 "Scariest Chart for Businesses in the Coming Decade" in Forbes that Donnie frequently references
How a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to conflict in the Persian Gulf could trigger a global recession
The fact that a prolonged closure could force the world to function with approximately 8 percent less energy, impacting the U.S. and various industries
How recent US economic growth has been heavily driven by the construction of data centers, pulling labor and resources away from other sectors
Total economic growth, which has slowed from 3% to 2% due to a shift in labor demographics and immigration levels
The labor shortage crisis — Baby Boomers are retiring, and the next generation entering the workforce is not large enough to replace them
How reduced net immigration has exacerbated this shortage, creating a competitive environment for blue-collar industries
His suggestion for managing a tight labor market: prioritize productivity first, followed by employee retention, and then recruiting
How increasing output per hour worked is essential when the labor pool is shrinking
Why owners should develop a one-page "downside contingency plan" to survive a potential recession, including identifying fixed and variable expenses and determining "trigger points" for cutting costs (such as reducing staff or discretionary spending)
While pest and lawn services have historically been considered recession-resistant, the shift toward door-to-door direct selling has made the industry more susceptible to consumer budget cuts
Why it's important to think about your long-term/exit plan. now

Resources mentioned:

Bisnomics: Newsletter and book by Dr. Bill Conerly
The Flexible Stance: Book by Dr. Bill Conerly

Notable: "The businesses that have thought through a downside contingency plan have two really strong benefits. First all, they can think about it in a relaxed manner. The second benefit is you react faster." —Bill Conerly, Ph.D.